Risk management

Содержание

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Where are we? 1. Introduction 2. Project Life Cycles 3. Project

Where are we?

1. Introduction
2. Project Life Cycles
3. Project Artifacts
4. Work Elements,

Schedule, Budget
5. Risk Management
Risk Management Plan
Optional Inclusions
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Outline What is Risk? Risk Identification: Threshold of Success Risk Management

Outline

What is Risk?
Risk Identification: Threshold of Success
Risk Management Plan
Monitoring and Mitigation

of Risks
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Outcomes Understand the key parts of the Risk Management Plan Know

Outcomes

Understand the key parts of the Risk Management Plan
Know how to

identify the key parts of the Threshold of Success (TOS) for a project.
Be able to write a TOS and begin writing Risks that can impact the TOS.
Have a clear understanding of what it means to mitigate a Risk.
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What is Risk? A risk is a potential future harm that

What is Risk?

A risk is a potential future harm that may

arise from some present action
(-> all risks have some probability rate of occurrence)
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What is Risk? There are a very few projects with no

What is Risk?

There are a very few projects with no risk
Software

projects are fraught with cost overrun and schedule delays
Risk management is an integral part of software project management
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What is Risk? Risk is the result of making decisions Every

What is Risk?

Risk is the result of making decisions
Every decision has

two outputs, a solutions and some risk
Risk is neither good or bad it just is, the impact might be good or bad
Risk has a probability and an impact
“A problem is a risk whose time has come”
All Risks should be based on a fact
Examples:
Good: A condition exists therefore this event might occur…
Bad: A condition might exist therefore …
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Key of Risk Management Risk Identification Risk Prioritization Risk Mitigation Also:

Key of Risk Management

Risk Identification
Risk Prioritization
Risk Mitigation
Also:
Risk Analysis – Take

some time to consider risk
Risk Monitoring – Have a method to identify the status of risks as they change
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Key of Risk Management

Key of Risk Management

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Adult games A team is put together to build some software.

Adult games

A team is put together to build some software.

Neither the clients nor the team talk about the objectives of the project other than building "some software". After a few months, something goes wrong or someone doesn't like what's happening so someone changes the rules. Before too long, one side or the other is upset that they can't win, somebody throws a fit, and goes home. Instead of summoning invisible armor, software projects change the rules by cutting features, adding more requirements, moving due dates, wasting resources, and things like that.
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Threshold of Success Defining and committing to a clear picture of

Threshold of Success

Defining and committing to a clear picture of success

establishes the common ground rules for a project by making the basic project goals explicit. The technique is known as Threshold of Success.
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Threshold of Success Clearly identifies what the project must minimally do

Threshold of Success

Clearly identifies what the project must minimally do to

make the customer satisfied
Establishes what are “must have” things versus “nice to have” items for the project
Provides a clear view of what must be done and therefore a clear view of what might impact what must be done
i.e., The risks of the project.
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Threshold of Success A good Threshold of Success is made up

Threshold of Success

A good Threshold of Success is made up of

about 3-4 SMART goals (no more than a few bullets on a single PowerPoint slide). 
SMART is a mnemonic which stands for -
Short/Specific
Measurable
Achievable
Relevant
Time bound.
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Threshold of Success Building a Threshold of Success The easiest way

Threshold of Success

Building a Threshold of Success
The easiest way to create

a Threshold of Success is to first create a minimum picture of failure, then convert failure into success.
Example: Failure for my current project might look something like this.
Essential features are not ready by the end of the second quarter.
Team members are dissatisfied or bored with their jobs.
Newly hired team members don't feel like they're part of the team by March 31.
There isn't enough money to continue development after this fiscal year and we have to fire people.
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Threshold of Success The threshold of success for my current project

Threshold of Success

The threshold of success for my current project might

look something like this.
By the end of the second quarter, all "Must Have" features are implemented and pass acceptance tests with no known critical defects.
All team members give average score of 5 or better on a job satisfaction survey taken quarterly.
By March 31, the team has successfully executed at least three team building activities with all team members present.
Funds of at least $1 million are secured by December 31 to allow for future development without a reduction in team size.
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Threshold of Success ToS statement:s We MUST do X or have

Threshold of Success

ToS statement:s
We MUST do X or have shown

that our product has met at least Y to reach our ToS.
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As part of a larger, comprehensive project plan, the risk management

As part of a larger, comprehensive project plan, the risk management

plan outlines the response that will be taken for each risk—if it materializes

Risk management plan

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Five main risk impact areas in SD: New, unproven technologies User

Five main risk impact areas in SD:
New, unproven technologies
User and functional

requirements
Application and system architecture
Performance
Organizational

Risk management plan

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New, unproven technologies. The majority of software projects entail the use

New, unproven technologies. The majority of software projects entail the use of

new technologies. Training and knowledge are of critical importance, and the improper use of new technology most often leads directly to project failure.

Risk management plan

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User and functional requirements. Software requirements capture all user needs with

User and functional requirements. Software requirements capture all user needs with respect

to the software system features, functions, and quality of service. Change in elemental requirements will likely propagate throughout the entire project, and modifications to user requirements might not translate to functional requirements.

Risk management plan

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Application and system architecture. Taking the wrong direction with a platform,

Application and system architecture. Taking the wrong direction with a platform, component,

or architecture can have disastrous consequences. As with the technological risks, it is vital that the team includes experts who understand the architecture and have the capability to make sound design choices.

Risk management plan

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Performance. It’s important to ensure that any risk management plan encompasses

Performance. It’s important to ensure that any risk management plan encompasses user

and partner expectations on performance. Consideration must be given to benchmarks and threshold testing throughout the project to ensure that the work products are moving in the right direction.

Risk management plan

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Organizational. Organizational problems may have adverse effects on project outcomes. Project

Organizational. Organizational problems may have adverse effects on project outcomes. Project

management must plan for efficient execution of the project, and find a balance between the needs of the development team and the expectations of the customers.

Risk management plan

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Writing Risk Statements

Writing Risk Statements

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Writing Risk Statements

Writing Risk Statements

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Writing Risk Statements

Writing Risk Statements

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Writing Risk Statements

Writing Risk Statements

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Lack of executive sponsorship (maybe because of change in the Administration);

Lack of executive sponsorship (maybe because of change in the Administration);

time delays, frustrations, credibility, and morale, and [a department cosponsoring the project] may pull out of [the project].
The majority of software-to-software interfaces are not defined & controlled; incomplete interfaces results in no benefits from [the project].
There has been inadequate schedule discipline (milestones, slippage, monitor progress, good project management) on this project; with no intervention the project will continue to slip & slide.

Example

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Risk prioritization Probability Very Improbable Improbable Probable Frequent Impact Negligible Marginal

Risk prioritization

Probability
Very Improbable
Improbable
Probable
Frequent
Impact
Negligible
Marginal
Critical
Catastrophic
Numerical Value
Risk Exposure (RE)= P * C

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Table of risks

Table of risks

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Key Ideas for Risk Management:

Key Ideas for Risk Management:

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Risk management includes the following tasks: Identify risks and their triggers

Risk management includes the following tasks:
Identify risks and their triggers
Classify and prioritize all

risks
Craft a plan that links each risk to a mitigation
Monitor for risk triggers during the project
Implement the mitigating action if any risk materializes
Communicate risk status throughout project

Risk mitigation

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Risk mitigation Evaluation Project Decisions gives these activities Defining a Threshold

Risk mitigation

Evaluation Project Decisions gives these activities
Defining a Threshold of Success
Identifying

risks
Formulating risk statements
Mitigating, tracking and controlling risk
Communicating about risk
Trading off resources to manage risk