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- 2. ECONOMIC RISK ANALYSIS Question : Is my money safe in that country? Answer : Evaluate the
- 3. ECONOMIC RISK ANALYSIS (ERA) IMF uses quantitative analysis for evaluating economies Economic risk is present in
- 4. ERA EXAM QUESTION PART I: QUANTITATIVE DATA The first part of the question asks you to
- 5. FINDING THE DATA Most of the data is available from the World Bank The data is
- 6. 1. GDP GROWTH Question: is the economy growing at a sustainable rate? Answer: target 2.0-3.0% developed,
- 7. GDP GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD As more resources are brought into use the sustainable rate of
- 8. GDP GROWTH TARGETS Need to find a balance between a booming economy and recession An overheating
- 9. GDP RISK AND RETURN FOR EMERGING ECONOMIES Sustainable high rates of growth as unemployed resources are
- 10. GDP RISK AND RETURN FOR OTHER ECONOMIES Developing Developed
- 11. 2: INFLATION – % CONSUMER PRICES
- 12. INFLATION Question: Are prices under control? Answer: compare the inflation with the 2.0% target Various measures
- 13. INFLATION AND RISK/RETURN Most central banks are targeting 2.0% CPI inflation Some central banks will accept
- 14. 3. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT – CAD Developing countries are often dominated by one or two industries
- 15. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT – CAD Question: how great is the short-term trade burden? Answer: compare the
- 16. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT – CAD For developing economies CAD can be a cause for concern Fall
- 17. DEVELOPED COUNTRY COMPARISON: USA Our analysis shows that GDP growth and inflation are both low risk
- 18. CRITICISM OF THE IMF QUANTITATIVE APPROACH Many feel that the IMF style of analysis does more
- 19. ERA EXAM QUESTION PART II: FDI INVESTMENT DECISION The second half of Exam Question 1 concerns
- 20. FACTORS INFLUENCING FDI The economic factors that are appropriate to the FDI decision depend upon the
- 21. GREENWICH MNEMONIC - GLIFTS GLIFTS is only there to help you remember – it should not
- 22. USING GLIFTS G – GDP per capita growth rate (the trend). May indicate a growing productivity,
- 23. OTHER INTERESTING DATA… An entrepreneur will browse data looking for items of interest This is when
- 24. SEMINAR TASK Come prepared with your calculators. We will be doing two sets of exercises Working
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