Cognitive Divide or a Mind-Meld? Scenarios of Cognitive Enhancement

Июль 22, 2022

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Cognitive Divide or a Mind-Meld? Scenarios of Cognitive Enhancement

Содержание

2. Proactionary Principle “People’s freedom to innovate technologically is highly valuable, even critical, to humanity. This implies
4. Internal External Hardware Software Techniques for Enhancement
11. ◆: Some evidence ◆ : Successful use ◆ : In use
14. Analysis from General Social Surveys, 1972-2004. WORDSUM is a vocabulary test with about 0.83 correlation with
15. "[I]t's not the poor families in Africa that are going to be doing this, it's going
18. Economy of Enhancement
19. Benefits Reduction of losses Individual benefits Societal benefits Costs Individual Competition
20. Reduction of Losses Lost keys UK £250 million/year Forgotten standing payment orders: £400 million/month ($53/month person)
21. Linda Gottfredson: IQ 75: not likely to master the elementary school curriculum or function independently in
22. Gottfredson 2002 Individual Effects Cognition important for good life Environmental toxin models +1 IQ point =
24. Economy Impact Growth residual due to productivity increase due to technology, human capital and other factors
25. Kanazawa 2006 Dickerson 2005 (+1 IQ = +8.2% GDP)
26. Costs Technology diffusion Devices spread fast and thoroughly Country gap Drugs Monthly Modafinil cost ~3% of
28. http://www.andorraweb.com/bass/index.php?show[prediction]=1
34. Simulation Initial experiments with income-enhancement models Enhancements that increase earning ability constant factor, decreasing to a
40. Enhancement proportional to income
41. Decreasing Margins
42. Gadgets come down in price, problematic if enhances earning capacity proportionally Decreasing margins stabilize Services likely
43. Most relevant where small increases have big effect Competitive areas Rising above threshold Little effect in
44. Near-term enhancements Gadgets and drugs Decreasing margins Narrow task improvements Hence unlikely to be major disruptors
45. Approaches Laissez-faire Rawls: are benefits to worst off worth it? The parties to the social contract
46. Risks making people fundamentally unequal? Liberal democracy already based on idea of common society of unequal
47. Conclusions Potential gains very large Spread across society Lowest performers likely gain most Competition may increase,
48. H+ Things to Do Support morphological/cognitive freedom “I’m not a genetic determinist, but everybody else is”
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Proactionary Principle
“People’s freedom to innovate technologically is highly valuable, even critical,

to humanity. This implies several imperatives when restrictive measures are proposed: Assess risks and opportunities according to available science, not popular perception. Account for both the costs of the restrictions themselves, and those of opportunities foregone. Favor measures that are proportionate to the probability and magnitude of impacts, and that have a high expectation value. Protect people’s freedom to experiment, innovate, and progress.”
- Max More

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Internal
External
Hardware
Software
Techniques for Enhancement

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◆: Some evidence
◆ : Successful use
◆ : In use

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Analysis from General Social Surveys, 1972-2004. WORDSUM is a vocabulary test

with about 0.83 correlation with IQ (Sigelman 1981). Table A is regression of stated happiness (HAPPY) against several different factors. Table B shows the distribution of HAPPY and WORDSUM scores. Note the strong unhappiness among the lower than average vocabulary scorers.

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"[I]t's not the poor families in Africa that are going to

be doing this, it's going to be the very affluent who are going to at first have healthier children…and then it becomes the slippery slope, they will have stronger, faster, smarter children… Then you've got these two very disparate classes.”
Kalfoglou A, Suthers, K, Scott J, & K Hudson, Reproductive Genetic Testing: What America Thinks, Washington, DC: Genetics and Public Policy Center, 2002

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Economy of Enhancement

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Benefits
Reduction of losses
Individual benefits
Societal benefits
Costs
Individual
Competition

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Reduction of Losses
Lost keys UK £250 million/year
Forgotten standing payment orders: £400

million/month ($53/month person)
Sleepiness cause 15-20% road accidents (as well as work-related accidents, iatrogenic illness etc)
Higher IQ likely reduces accident risks
Can cognitive enhancement reduce this?

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Linda Gottfredson:
IQ 75: not likely to master the elementary school curriculum

or function independently in adulthood in modern societies.
IQ 85: close to the upper boundary for Level 1 functional literacy, the lowest of five levels in the U.S. government’s 1992 National Adult Literacy Survey. (locating the expiration date on a driver’s license or totalling a bank deposit slip, but not writing a brief letter explaining an error in a credit card bill or find a piece of information in an article)
IQ 105: minimum threshold for achieving moderately high levels of success. Competitive for middle-level jobs (clerical, crafts and repair, sales, police and fire fighting)
IQ 115+: ability threshold for being competitive as a candidate for graduate or professional school in the U.S. and thus for high levels of socioeconomic success. Self-instructing and are expected to instruct, advise, and supervise others in their community and work environments. Range from which cultural leaders tend to emerge and be recruited.

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Gottfredson 2002
Individual Effects
Cognition important for good life
Environmental toxin models
+1 IQ point

= +1.763% income (Schwartz), +2.094/3.631% (Salkever, m/f)
Annual gain / IQ point US $55-65 billion
0.4-0.5% GDP
Effects on schooling, participation rate, social costs
Weiss 1998: 3 point IQ increase:
Poverty rate -25%
Males in jail -25%
High school dropouts -28%
Parentless children -20%
Welfare recipiency -18%
Out-of-wedlock births -15%

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Economy Impact
Growth residual due to productivity increase due to technology, human

capital and other factors
Cognition plays a sizeable role

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Kanazawa 2006
Dickerson 2005
(+1 IQ = +8.2% GDP)

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Costs
Technology diffusion
Devices spread fast and thoroughly
Country gap
Drugs
Monthly Modafinil cost ~3% of

UK median income
(Medical) services
Cost set by expert salaries

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http://www.andorraweb.com/bass/index.php?show[prediction]=1

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Simulation
Initial experiments with income-enhancement models
Enhancements that increase earning ability constant factor,

decreasing to a low price
Assumes no redistribution

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Enhancement proportional to income

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Decreasing Margins

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Gadgets come down in price, problematic if enhances earning capacity proportionally
Decreasing

margins stabilize
Services likely to be problematic
Temporary increases in inequality may be worth it if they speed transition
“We shouldn’t sacrifice the poor of tomorrow for the poor of today”

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Most relevant where small increases have big effect
Competitive areas
Rising above threshold
Little

effect in areas of diverse talents
Compounding
Problem when new “must have” enhancements arrive faster than the old reduce in price

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Near-term enhancements
Gadgets and drugs
Decreasing margins
Narrow task improvements
Hence unlikely to be major

disruptors
Biological enhancements at first less significant than external software, hardware
Important tryout for handling more radical enhancement

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Approaches
Laissez-faire
Rawls: are benefits to worst off worth it?
The parties to the

social contract "want to insure for their descendants the best genetic endowment (assuming their own to be fixed)."
Kaldor Hicks – enhanced pay compensation to the unenhanced through improved economy

Create a no-envy situation
Capability approach
Lottery
Taxing enhancements
Taxing enhanceds
Speed diffusion

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Risks making people fundamentally unequal?
Liberal democracy already based on idea of

common society of unequal individuals
Competition
Worst off are those who can compete in the fewest domains
Many enhancements non-positional (e.g. reducing accidents)

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Conclusions
Potential gains very large
Spread across society
Lowest performers likely gain most
Competition may

increase, but also overall wealth and opportunities
Risks manageable near term
Need for ecological studies
Collective enhancement

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H+ Things to Do
Support morphological/cognitive freedom
“I’m not a genetic determinist, but

everybody else is”
Need to counteract stupid biologism
Patient choice
Harm reduction
Speed development

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Cognitive Divide or a Mind-Meld? Scenarios of Cognitive Enhancement

Содержание

Proactionary Principle “People’s freedom to innovate technologically is highly valuable, even critical,

InternalExternalHardwareSoftwareTechniques for Enhancement

◆: Some evidence◆ : Successful use◆ : In use

Analysis from General Social Surveys, 1972-2004. WORDSUM is a vocabulary test

"[I]t's not the poor families in Africa that are going to

Economy of Enhancement

BenefitsReduction of lossesIndividual benefitsSocietal benefitsCostsIndividualCompetition

Reduction of LossesLost keys UK £250 million/yearForgotten standing payment orders: £400

Linda Gottfredson:IQ 75: not likely to master the elementary school curriculum

Gottfredson 2002Individual EffectsCognition important for good lifeEnvironmental toxin models+1 IQ point

Economy ImpactGrowth residual due to productivity increase due to technology, human

Kanazawa 2006Dickerson 2005(+1 IQ = +8.2% GDP)

CostsTechnology diffusionDevices spread fast and thoroughlyCountry gapDrugsMonthly Modafinil cost ~3% of