Do Submarine Volcanoes

Август 13, 2022

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Do Submarine Volcanoes

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3. General Approach – Find the Cycles My primary approach is to seek out the causes of
4. Content We will cover: How submarine volcanoes can cause climate change – as compared to surface
5. Theory Statement - Definite “Submarine volcanism is significant, cyclically variable, and changes global and regional climate
6. It’s been suggested before.......and ignored Also: Published papers of geophysicists Michael House http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.085.01.01 and: John Wahr
7. Oceans are Big – 70% of the Surface What Lies Beneath?
8. And...Mayotte Signalled globally LF Seismic signal Erupted Sept 2018 5km3 in 6 months 15 Billion Tonnes
9. Some Facts About the Ocean Floor The Earths tectonic plates mainly diverge in the oceans, up
10. Why the World is Smooth and Round-ish It isn’t rigid, its an spinning oblate spheroid contained
11. It’s Mostly Rock By Scale of weight: Rock is 4,000 x Water Rock is 1 Million
12. Summary: What this means for Submarine Volcanoes The ocean floor that oceanic volcanoes must penetrate is
13. Yes it Does (Vary) – Kutterolf et al Kutterolf et al 2012, A detection of Milankovitch
14. What Drives Ice Ages – Orbital Forcing Visualisation of the combined effect of three Milankovitch cycles
15. How Much Warming is That? (Numbers at last!) 28x106m3/pa per volcano x 5,000 volcanoes = 140Km3
16. Last 4 Interglacials - Note Younger Dryas Event Younger Dryas Superimposing of the referenced data sets
17. Interglacial Sea Level Rise - 18mm pa No pause, no Dryas effect, where does the heat
18. Can El Nino be Driven by Cyclic Volcanicity? I additionally propose this is the case, that
19. Wrap Little is known with precision, many variable causes exist, at a scale denied by “experts”.
20. What Controls the Planetary Climate? The atmosphere is primarily an effect of dominant solar radiation, gravitational
21. THE END Thank you for your attention! Questions? Please send questions regarding the facts and the
22. EPICA DOME C DATA
23. Greenland Ice Cores
24. Greenland NGRIP – Far North, More Extreme Range of variability is 1.2/2.5 deg per century. Absolute
25. 500 Million Years - Since Records REALLY Began
26. 500 Thousand Years of Ice Ages – Sawtooth Cycles Current interglacial is cooler than last 4
27. On my Father’s Planet, there are many Cycles......... Of these cycles: Two are Causal, four are
28. Detecting Frequencies of Natural Cycles Frequency analysis of Vostok Ice core Many interfering frequencies combined Need
29. Recent Time Series - 10,000yrs + last 150 yrs Actual Continual Change – Repeated Cyclic Range
30. Cycles in 2,000 Years of Temperature Records Using ten proxy data series over 2,000 years BP
31. Cycles Combine to Match Climate Record Ludecke and Weiss 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874282301711010044
32. Close Match to Observations of Solar Cycles nb: Be10 and C14 Cosmogenic Proxies Mechanism is cloud
33. Summary: Climate is Continuously Changing Naturally, cyclically, on Multiple Frequencies, from multiple causes Primarily short term
35. Скачать презентацию

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General Approach – Find the Cycles
My primary approach is to

seek out the causes of cyclic change
These will be controlled by orbital forcing, which is primarily gravitational by the Sun Earth Moon system, and variable solar radiance
I will suggest why the orbital forcing must be gravitational for volcanoes
Exceptional events do not repeat and are... exceptional
I am a physicist and professional engineer so only believes what the observations support, I won’t tell you what causes which, or expect consensual belief in my particular approach. It only takes one to prove everyone else wrong. There are no bad questions.
I will create a definite theory to test, and state conclusions
You can decide what to believe, with, perhaps, more research.

Moving along........

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Content
We will cover:
How submarine volcanoes can cause climate change –

as compared to surface volcanoes
Estimating the number, output and variability of submarine volcanoes, hence...
A way to quantify the heat emissions of submarine volcano
Determining naturally changing volcanic cycles
Frequency Analysis of time series data to determine cycles and identify their causes:
Ice age cycle periods 10’s Ka
Short term periods <1Ka such as El Nino, & longer term holocene cycles (MWP, RWP, etc)
Younger Dryas evidence for submarine warming as the cause of interglacial sea level rise
Possible cause of the much more frequent El Nino events by cyclic volcanic warming
Next steps in science. Comment welcome. WIP paper is at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3259379

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Theory Statement - Definite
“Submarine volcanism is significant, cyclically variable, and changes

global and regional climate by direct ocean heating, at a level capable of initiating and driving the sudden interglacial warmings of ice age cycles.”
Pre pub paper is at: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3259379
Surface volcanoes have limited effect, the oceanic response quickly corrects the mainly cooling effects by evaporation & cloud albedo - 150W/m2
nb: Surface life maybe destroyed by fire & starvation, but the oceans soon stabilise the climate & nature recycles the carbon into new flora & fauna. Natural Re wilding
The majority of volcanoes, under the oceans, have quite different effects.
Oceans integrate & store the significant heat emitted continuously over extended periods across the whole active population and ocean volume
Volcanoes change the sea surface temperature hence global climate....

How much heat, and how much does it vary?

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It’s been suggested before.......and ignored
Also: Published papers of geophysicists Michael House

http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/GSL.SP.1995.085.01.01 and:
John Wahr on solid tides in particular. See AGU handbook for Wahr”s data and calculation of solid tide amplitude: Ref
Wahr, J. (1995), Earth Tides, Global Earth Physics, A Handbook of Physical Constants, AGU Reference Shelf, 1, pp. 40–46

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Oceans are Big – 70% of the Surface
What Lies Beneath?

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And...Mayotte
Signalled globally
LF Seismic signal
Erupted Sept 2018
5km3 in 6 months
15 Billion Tonnes
20

ExaJoules of heat added to ocean above 20x1018 EJ
Possible impact on 2019 Hurricane Season in E. Africa

Feuillet et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00809-x

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Some Facts About the Ocean Floor
The Earths tectonic plates mainly diverge

in the oceans, up to 24cm pa
Sea floor c.7km crust plus 0 > 120Km growing Lithosphere as plates age
Continental crusts are c.35km thick, depends who you ask
Thin, heavy, Oceanic plates are mostly subsumed by thicker lighter continents
Oceanic basaltic crust is no more than 200 million years old anywhere
The ocean is 70% of the Earth’s surface
The continents have 1,500 active volcanoes
The oceans should have at least 5,000
Perhaps more, given the shorter pathway through which magma must force its way

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Why the World is Smooth and Round-ish
It isn’t rigid, its an

spinning oblate spheroid contained by gravity and CF
Most of the upper and lower mantle are deformable/visco-elastic hot rock
Under high pressure at many thousand degrees temperature, but mobile
Only the wafer-thin crust and Lithosphere is solid-ish - & the metal inner core.
NB: Crust is too thin to draw here, or represent on a screen/sheet of paper as a line (Visual)
The crust, atmosphere and oceans are held onto the mobile sphere by gravity, which gives them their pressure
Magma pressure is 10-30,000 Bar where it comes from, push, push....
So depth of oceans at exit has little effect (Deep ocean pressures are “only” 1,000 Bar)
The planetary body is in constant motion caused by gravitational orbital forcings

Earth is a flexible body wrapped in a wafer thin crust under a varying gravitational field that continually distorts the crust, while magma under huge pressure is constantly looking for ways out

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It’s Mostly Rock
By Scale of weight:
Rock is 4,000 x Water
Rock is

1 Million x Air
Absolute:
Rock is 5.9x1024 Kg
Water is 1.4x1021 Kg
Air is 5.1x1018 Kg

The shape is constantly modulated by the gravitational orbital forcing of the Sun and Moon, currently there is a 0.5 metre per day solid tide as well as the liquid tides

That’s no Moon . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WFCjnPNixM

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Summary: What this means for Submarine Volcanoes
The ocean floor that oceanic

volcanoes must penetrate is thin, vs. continental
The driving pressure is huge and unaffected by the ocean above
Distance to the surface is 10% of the path through continental volcanoes
Crustal faults are continually stressed by gravitational tidal movement
That movement changes as orbital forcing changes
Forcing periods ranges from diurnal to the 100Ka Milankovitch eccentricity cycle
These factors help deliver an average output of 6.4 times surface volcanoes (*)
Largest is Hawaiian hot spot at 100 Million m3 pa volume accumulation
Average Output of a submarine volcano is about 28 million m3 pa (*)

But does it really vary?

* Scott White et al, 2006 doi:10.1029/2005GC001002: Long-term volumetric eruption rates and magma budgets

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Yes it Does (Vary) – Kutterolf et al
Kutterolf et al 2012,

A detection of Milankovitch frequencies in global volcanic activity doi:10.1130/g33419.1

Applied frequency analysis to eruption data from Ring of Fire
A is time series of event frequency
B is period/frequency analysis of same eruptions using d18O proxy
nb: Author has so far declined to quantify the likely increase in emissions at Milankovitch maxima, but they are clearly substantial in the hundreds of percent. Most sustained during the 100Ka eccentricity maximum, most intense at the 41Ka obliquity maximum.

Volcanic maximums occur at Milankovitch orbital forcing maximums

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What Drives Ice Ages – Orbital Forcing
Visualisation of the combined effect

of three Milankovitch cycles on global climate

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/wxfest/Milankovitch/earthorbit.html

But forcing what?

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How Much Warming is That? (Numbers at last!)
28x106m3/pa per volcano x

5,000 volcanoes = 140Km3 pa = 400 Billion tonnes pa
MUCH greater than ANY consensus figure, dwarfs the divergent ridge in-fill
Unit heat content:
Molten state: 1000 deg x 1,000kg x 1,000 Joules/kg deg = 1x109 Joules/tonne
Plus Heat of crystallisation = 400MJoules per tonne
Total Unit heat content is 1.4 Gigajoules per tonne
Hence Total Heat pa =5.5 x 1020 Joules per annum
Can raise 1m of the ocean by 0.36 deg ( = 5.5 x 1020 /(1x362x1012x1x103)x4.2x103)
0.034W/m2
Heat is added to the oceans, so retained for a considerable time, not lost, the intense heat will also cause increased overturning of the oceans

That’s how much, from volcanoes alone, and it varies by hundreds of percent at Milankovitch maxima

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Last 4 Interglacials - Note Younger Dryas Event
Younger Dryas
Superimposing of the

referenced data sets by James J Covington

nb: Note short term cyclic change evident throughout

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Interglacial Sea Level Rise - 18mm pa
No pause, no Dryas effect,

where does the heat come from? Below? Still a mystery......

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png

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Can El Nino be Driven by Cyclic Volcanicity?
I additionally propose this

is the case, that is my definite theory
Galapagos region is a major volcanic hot spot, three plates meet here
El Nino events are characterised by warmer currents rising from the deep
What is warming them?
Viterito(i) has shown correlation between global seismic activity and El Ninos
Could orbital forcing cause El Ninos?
How much incremental heat is needed - TBD
Could Lunar eccentricity be the cause
Lunar forcings are the primary driver of change in liquid & solid Earth tides
Periods include 18.6y, 8.85y, plus other lesser forcings? 1998 – 2016 is 18 yrs
Now need to study El Nino cycle frequencies against all gravitational forcing
Watch this space .........there is no settled science.

(i) Viterito, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2016, 7:4 DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000345

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Wrap
Little is known with precision, many variable causes exist, at a

scale denied by “experts”. Claims must be tested by the observation of nature. not denial

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What Controls the Planetary Climate?
The atmosphere is primarily an effect of

dominant solar radiation, gravitational pressure and the much smaller heat input of internal heat, all kept in constant balance by the massive negative feedback to any change from the oceans, by changing evaporative cooling and the resulting cloud albedo. The atmosphere is not a control of climate, atmosphere is a medium in which these changes happen. A low heat capacity layer that determines the lapse rate to space.
The total global effect of the heat from submarine volcanic activity on the global surface climate is neither insignificant nor constant. The actual amount will become clearer as estimates of the total amount and variability of geothermal heat entering the deep oceans is better understood, combined with other significant natural cyclic oscillations of Earth’s multivariate systems that are not considered in climate models..

“There are more things in heaven and Earth, climate scientists, than are dreamt of in your philosophy”

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THE END
Thank you for your attention! Questions?
Please send questions regarding the

facts and the physics to brian.catt@deconfused.com

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EPICA DOME C DATA

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Greenland Ice Cores

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Greenland NGRIP – Far North, More Extreme
Range of variability is 1.2/2.5

deg per century. Absolute range is typically c. 4deg pp. (@-0.2 d18O per deg)

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500 Million Years - Since Records REALLY Began

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500 Thousand Years of Ice Ages – Sawtooth Cycles
Current interglacial is

cooler than last 4 - and nearly ended

Cyclic heat Impulse

Cooling

Hippos in Honiton

Petit et al Nature 1999 Vostok data

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On my Father’s Planet, there are many Cycles.........
Of these cycles: Two

are Causal, four are effects ......... and two are missing!
nb: of the cycles seen, none can deliver an interglacial event alone - or together?
I suggest that the missing cycles – gravity and solar winds - contribute significant effects

By Clive Best, for Ellis and Palmer 2016 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2016.04.004

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Detecting Frequencies of Natural Cycles
Frequency analysis of Vostok Ice core
Many

interfering frequencies combined

Need to separate notes from chords

Deconvolved Chord

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Recent Time Series - 10,000yrs + last 150 yrs Actual
Continual Change

– Repeated Cyclic Range & Rate – Now is Not Unusual

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Cycles in 2,000 Years of Temperature Records
Using ten proxy data series

over 2,000 years BP

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Cycles Combine to Match Climate Record
Ludecke and Weiss 2017
http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874282301711010044

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Close Match to Observations of Solar Cycles
nb: Be10 and C14 Cosmogenic

Proxies

Mechanism is cloud formation by ionisation
Caused by very high energy cosmic radiation

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Summary: Climate is Continuously Changing
Naturally, cyclically, on Multiple Frequencies, from multiple

causes
Primarily short term solar cycles, and long term orbital forcing cycles
Range and rate are consistent from cycle to cycle, including current warming
and turning point?
How do we know? Observations :
Proxies: Ice cores d18O, glacier position, tree rings, cosmogenic isotopes (Be10 and C14)
Direct: Weather stations, Satellites and probes, now focussed on oceans
Solar observations - Sun spots, now solar wind variation (Parker probe)
CMIP models presume most of last 2Ka change is due to anthropogenic causes
The geolgical observations say it isn’t
“If the observations don’t match the theory, its wrong”, Richard Feynman

All this is based on well known geological evidence

Do Submarine Volcanoes

Содержание

General Approach – Find the Cycles My primary approach is to

ContentWe will cover: How submarine volcanoes can cause climate change –

Theory Statement - Definite“Submarine volcanism is significant, cyclically variable, and changes

It’s been suggested before.......and ignoredAlso: Published papers of geophysicists Michael House

Oceans are Big – 70% of the SurfaceWhat Lies Beneath?

And...MayotteSignalled globallyLF Seismic signalErupted Sept 20185km3 in 6 months15 Billion Tonnes20

Some Facts About the Ocean FloorThe Earths tectonic plates mainly diverge

Why the World is Smooth and Round-ishIt isn’t rigid, its an

It’s Mostly RockBy Scale of weight:Rock is 4,000 x WaterRock is

Summary: What this means for Submarine VolcanoesThe ocean floor that oceanic

Yes it Does (Vary) – Kutterolf et alKutterolf et al 2012,

What Drives Ice Ages – Orbital ForcingVisualisation of the combined effect

How Much Warming is That? (Numbers at last!)28x106m3/pa per volcano x

Last 4 Interglacials - Note Younger Dryas EventYounger DryasSuperimposing of the

Interglacial Sea Level Rise - 18mm paNo pause, no Dryas effect,

Can El Nino be Driven by Cyclic Volcanicity? I additionally propose this

WrapLittle is known with precision, many variable causes exist, at a

What Controls the Planetary Climate?The atmosphere is primarily an effect of

THE ENDThank you for your attention! Questions?Please send questions regarding the