Tasks Forcasting methods. The rule of min costs

to 350 DDoS attacks, in 2007 – 347, in 2008 – 354, in 2009 – 363, in 2010 – 364, in 2011 – 360, in 2012- 369, in 2013 – 389. As a specialist in information security, using the method of extrapolation on the current average annual growth rate in the number of attacks, make a forcast about the number of DDoS attacks on the servers of your company in 2014.

the software when working over the last 100 hours

Simulation modeling

Using a random number, selected using random number generators, it is necessary to simulate the occurrence of failures of the software within 8 hours

and got the following results on the dependence between the number of leakage channels and the damage

Using linear interpolation, find the value of any damages, if the company has 5 channels of leakage.

The number of leakage channels

Damage $

of the region for the last 5 months

For the 1st month a forecast of 14 leaks was given (by information security professionals). Using a simple exponential smoothing model, give the forecast on the number of leaks on the 6th month, if the smoothing constant α = 0.65

Month

Number of conf. inf. leakage

the reliability of forecasts in the 1 part of the 2014,
provided that
the information security specialists predicted the emergence of 47 new types of malicious programs,
and as a result, the monitoring system discovered 62 new species of malicious program,
41 of them coincided with the experts forecasts.

following data:

When the decreasing savings from scale occurred?

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