The World Economy

Сентябрь 10, 2022

Содержание

2. Lecture 4 Overview of the World Economy “Globalization” Elements of the World Economy Ways that Countries
3. The World Economy “Globalization” Means different things to different people My definitions (see my online Glossary):
4. Lecture 1: Overview The World Economy “Globalization” Some aspects of globalization declined with the world recession
5. The World Economy International Economics Is NOT about countries It IS about interactions among countries
6. Lecture 4 Overview of the World Economy “Globalization” Elements of the World Economy Ways that Countries
7. The World Economy World Economy consists of Countries: a few hundred (CIA lists about 240) (WTO
8. (Aside, on getting information) An excellent source of information about countries is the CIA World Fact
9. The World Economy World Economy consists of GDP (2013 est., per CIA, in US$) World: Total
10. The World Economy Implication US is very unusual Very rich US has less than 5% of
11. Lecture 4 Overview of the World Economy “Globalization” Elements of the World Economy Ways that Countries
12. The World Economy Ways that countries interact economically Trade (per CIA, 2013 est.) World exports: $18.71
14. The World Economy See tables below for Who trades most? Who trades with whom? Share of
15. Who Trades the Most? ($ b. & % share, 2013) *EU external only Source: WTO, International
16. Who Trades the Most? Developed countries are the biggest traders China is catching up, in trade
17. Who Trades the Most? See Economist from about a year ago: “Trading Up: Picking the world
18. Who Trades the Most? “Emerging Markets” in general are catching up to, or surpassing, the developed
19. Lecture 1: Overview
21. Who Trades with Whom? ($ b., 2013, Intra- and inter-regional merchandise trade) Source: WTO, International Trade
22. North America, Europe, and Asia trade mostly within their group Poorer regions – Latin America, Africa
23. What Does the World Trade? ($ b. 2013 & annual % growth rates, merchandise exports) Source:
24. Lecture 1: Overview What Does the World Trade? Biggest traded category: manufactures Fastest growing, then shrinking,
25. Lecture 1: Overview What Does the World Trade? ($ b. 2013 & annual % growth rates,
26. Lecture 1: Overview What Does the World Trade? ($ b. 2013 & annual % growth rates,
27. What Does the US Trade? ($ b. 2011) Source: Economic Report of the President, Feb 2013,
28. Lecture 1: Overview What Does the US Trade? US imports are much larger than US exports
29. Importance of Trade for Countries? (GDP in US$ b., Exports % of GDP, Selected countries, 2012)
30. Importance of Trade for Countries? Even though we trade more than most, US trade is a
31. Importance of Trade for Countries? A Few More of Interest Source: CIA World Fact Book
32. Lecture 4 Overview of the World Economy “Globalization” Elements of the World Economy Ways that Countries
33. The World Economy Ways that countries interact economically Capital Flows Financial (holdings of financial assets abroad)
34. Lecture 1: Overview The World Economy Ways that countries interact economically Capital Flows Financial (holdings of
35. The World Economy Ways that countries interact economically Capital Flows Financial (holdings of financial assets abroad)
36. US Investment Position ($ trillion at market value, year-end 2011) Source: Economic Report of the President,
37. US Investment Position (Qualification: “Owe” isn’t quite right. This includes all assets in the US owned
38. Lecture 4 Overview of the World Economy “Globalization” Elements of the World Economy Ways that Countries
39. The World Economy Other ways that countries interact economically Migration Temporary Guest workers Day workers Permanent
40. Lecture 4 Overview of the World Economy “Globalization” Elements of the World Economy Ways that Countries
41. The World Economy Other ways that countries interact economically Policies that affect other countries Direct Indirect
42. The World Economy Other ways that countries interact economically Policies that affect other countries Direct Trade
43. The World Economy Aside on Tariffs We will be dealing a lot with these See reading
44. The World Economy Aside on Tariffs Tariffs could go up: WTO enforces only upper limits on
45. The World Economy Aside on Tariffs 45% of US exports go to developing countries US tariffs
46. The World Economy Other ways that countries interact economically Policies that affect other countries Indirect Subsidies
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Слайд 2

Lecture 4
Overview of the World Economy
“Globalization”
Elements of the World Economy
Ways that

Countries Interact
Trade
Capital Flows
Migration
Policies that Affect Others

Слайд 3

The World Economy
“Globalization”
Means different things to different people
My definitions (see my

online Glossary):
1. The increasing world-wide integration of markets for goods, services and capital.
2. Also the role of MNCs, IMF, WTO, World Bank.
3. Elsewhere: domination by United States.
Some see good, others bad
Bad: reading by powell
Good: reading by Bhagwati

Both make valid points. Read to see what they are.

Слайд 4

Lecture 1: Overview
The World Economy
“Globalization”
Some aspects of globalization declined with the

world recession of 2008
The Economist, on Nov 15, 2014, reported “Signs of Life”:
Globalization is back
Various measures of globalization (though not all) have risen past their previous peaks
The “depth” of trade (its volume) has increased
The “breadth” of trade (number of borders crossed) has not fully recovered

Слайд 5

The World Economy
International Economics
Is NOT about countries
It IS about interactions among

countries

Слайд 6

Lecture 4
Overview of the World Economy
“Globalization”
Elements of the World Economy
Ways that

Countries Interact
Trade
Capital Flows
Migration
Policies that Affect Others

Слайд 7

The World Economy
World Economy consists of
Countries: a few hundred
(CIA lists about

240)
(WTO has 160 members)
People: over 7 billion
(7.216 b. 1/5/15, compare 320 m. US)
Land: about 15 times the US

Слайд 8

(Aside, on getting information)
An excellent source of information about countries is

the CIA World Fact Book
(Just Google “fact book”)

Слайд 9

The World Economy
World Economy consists of
GDP (2013 est., per CIA, in

US$)
World: Total = $87.25 trillion
per capita = $13,100
US: Total = $16.72 trillion
per capita = $52,800

Слайд 10

The World Economy
Implication
US is very unusual
Very rich
US has less than

5% of world population but almost 20% of world income

Слайд 11

Lecture 4
Overview of the World Economy
“Globalization”
Elements of the World Economy
Ways that

Countries Interact
Trade
Capital Flows
Migration
Policies that Affect Others

Слайд 12

The World Economy
Ways that countries interact economically
Trade (per CIA, 2013 est.)
World

exports: $18.71 trillion
(compare world GDP of $87 trillion)
World trade has grown faster than world GDP most years
But not during 2008-9, due to world recession

Слайд 13

Слайд 14

The World Economy
See tables below for
Who trades most?
Who trades with whom?
Share

of trade in GDP
US:
What do we export/import?
To/from whom?

Слайд 15

Who Trades the Most? ($ b. & % share, 2013)
*EU external only
Source:

WTO, International Trade Statistics, 2014, Table I.8

Слайд 16

Who Trades the Most?
Developed countries are the biggest traders
China is catching

up, in trade volume
It was the #3 exporter six years ago when I taught the course; now it’s #2 and closing in on EU.
Others are gaining as well: Four years ago Canada was #5 exporter. Three years ago that was S Korea

Слайд 17

Who Trades the Most?
See Economist from about a year ago: “Trading

Up: Picking the world champion of trade”
China claimed to have surpassed US. True only for goods, not goods + services
But with time China will pass US in both
China’s trade per GDP is much larger than the US, but below world average
Much of the value in China’s exports is imported inputs, thus low “value added.”

Слайд 18

Who Trades the Most?
“Emerging Markets” in general are catching up to,

or surpassing, the developed countries
In GDP, trade, and more
See Economics Focus from The Economist, “Why the Tail Wags the Dog”

Слайд 19

Lecture 1: Overview

Слайд 20

Слайд 21

Who Trades with Whom? ($ b., 2013, Intra- and inter-regional merchandise trade)
Source:

WTO, International Trade Statistics, 2014, Table I.4

Слайд 22

North America, Europe, and Asia trade mostly within their group
Poorer regions

– Latin America, Africa – trade mostly with the richer regions
This reflects what is not so clear in the table:
Rich countries trade most with each other
Poor countries trade most with rich countries
But their trade with each other is growing

Слайд 23

What Does the World Trade? ($ b. 2013 & annual % growth

rates, merchandise exports)

Source: WTO, International Trade Statistics, 2014, Table II.1

Слайд 24

Lecture 1: Overview
What Does the World Trade?
Biggest traded category: manufactures
Fastest growing,

then shrinking, then growing: “fuels & mining”
Why?
Because this is the value of trade, and prices of oil and other raw materials were rising, and then falling.
But within Manufactures, Iron & Steel is even more volatile:

Слайд 25

Lecture 1: Overview
What Does the World Trade? ($ b. 2013 & annual

% growth rates, merchandise exports)

Source: WTO, International Trade Statistics, 2014, Table II.1

Reason: Very sensitive to investment, thus to expansion and contraction.

Слайд 26

Lecture 1: Overview
What Does the World Trade? ($ b. 2013 & annual

% growth rates, merchandise exports)

Source: WTO, International Trade Statistics, 2014, Table II.1

Note too: Trade in cars is more than 10% of trade in manufactures, and also volatile.

Слайд 27

What Does the US Trade? ($ b. 2011)
Source: Economic Report of the

President, Feb 2013, Table B-104.

Слайд 28

Lecture 1: Overview
What Does the US Trade?
US imports are much larger

than US exports
(We’ll see what that means later in the course.)
US is a big…
Exporter of agricultural products
Importer of oil
Exporter and importer of capital goods (i.e., machines for making things)

Слайд 29

Importance of Trade for Countries? (GDP in US$ b., Exports % of

GDP, Selected countries, 2012)

Source: CIA World Fact Book

Слайд 30

Importance of Trade for Countries?
Even though we trade more than most,

US trade is a smaller part of US GDP than for many other countries
Others that are low: Japan, Nepal (even lower than US)
Note Singapore: Exports can be more than GDP.
Reason: Exports are made using imported inputs, so value of exports includes imports.

Слайд 31

Importance of Trade for Countries? A Few More of Interest
Source: CIA World

Fact Book

Слайд 32

Lecture 4
Overview of the World Economy
“Globalization”
Elements of the World Economy
Ways that

Countries Interact
Trade
Capital Flows
Migration
Policies that Affect Others

Слайд 33

The World Economy
Ways that countries interact economically
Capital Flows
Financial (holdings of financial

assets abroad)
Real (international ownership of real assets)

Слайд 34

Lecture 1: Overview
The World Economy
Ways that countries interact economically
Capital Flows
Financial (holdings

of financial assets abroad)
Currency
Bank deposits
Bonds – private and government
Stocks
Bank loans
Real (international ownership of real assets)

Слайд 35

The World Economy
Ways that countries interact economically
Capital Flows
Financial (holdings of financial

assets abroad)
Real (international ownership of real assets)
Real estate
Capital assets (plant and equipment)
Stocks (equities) if ownership share is large
Other
Data, below, are stocks (i.e, amounts at a point in time)

Слайд 36

US Investment Position ($ trillion at market value, year-end 2011)
Source: Economic Report

of the President, Feb 2013, Table B-107

Compare: US GDP in 2012 = $16.02 trillion

Слайд 37

US Investment Position
(Qualification: “Owe” isn’t quite right. This includes all assets

in the US owned by foreigners, including land, buildings, etc. Not just what we’ve borrowed.)
Lessons:
US is a large net “debtor” (result of our spending more than we earn)
Most of this today is government, but some is private

Слайд 38

Lecture 4
Overview of the World Economy
“Globalization”
Elements of the World Economy
Ways that

Countries Interact
Trade
Capital Flows
Migration
Policies that Affect Others

Слайд 39

The World Economy
Other ways that countries interact economically
Migration
Temporary
Guest workers
Day workers
Permanent
In practice,

most (all?) countries limit migration severely

Слайд 40

Lecture 4
Overview of the World Economy
“Globalization”
Elements of the World Economy
Ways that

Countries Interact
Trade
Capital Flows
Migration
Policies that Affect Others

Слайд 41

The World Economy
Other ways that countries interact economically
Policies that affect other

countries
Direct
Indirect

Слайд 42

The World Economy
Other ways that countries interact economically
Policies that affect other

countries
Direct
Trade policies (tariffs, quotas)
Foreign aid
Capital controls
Exchange rate management
Immigration restrictions
Indirect

Слайд 43

The World Economy
Aside on Tariffs
We will be dealing a lot with

these
See reading by Hufbauer and Grieco:
US tariffs are much lower than they used to be (average 4% now, vs. 40% in 1946)
US has gained a great deal from lowering tariffs
US still has much to gain from further lowering
But there are also severe costs for some people and firms who compete with imports

Слайд 44

The World Economy
Aside on Tariffs
Tariffs could go up:
WTO enforces only upper

limits on tariffs
Actual tariffs in many countries are below these limits, and could legally rise
There was danger that the recent world recession would push countries to do that.
They didn’t – at least not much.

Слайд 45

The World Economy
Aside on Tariffs
45% of US exports go to developing

countries
US tariffs are much higher against developing countries than against developed countries

Слайд 46

The World Economy
Other ways that countries interact economically
Policies that affect other

countries
Indirect
Subsidies (esp. agriculture)
US farm subsidies > foreign aid (see CGD reading)
Macro policies (monetary, fiscal)
Exchange-rate policies
Environmental policies
Standards
Labor
Health & safety
Norms

The World Economy

Содержание

Lecture 4Overview of the World Economy“Globalization”Elements of the World EconomyWays that

The World Economy“Globalization”Means different things to different peopleMy definitions (see my

Lecture 1: OverviewThe World Economy“Globalization”Some aspects of globalization declined with the

The World EconomyInternational EconomicsIs NOT about countriesIt IS about interactions among

Lecture 4Overview of the World Economy“Globalization”Elements of the World EconomyWays that

The World EconomyWorld Economy consists ofCountries: a few hundred (CIA lists about

(Aside, on getting information)An excellent source of information about countries is

The World EconomyWorld Economy consists ofGDP (2013 est., per CIA, in

The World EconomyImplicationUS is very unusualVery rich US has less than

Lecture 4Overview of the World Economy“Globalization”Elements of the World EconomyWays that

The World EconomyWays that countries interact economicallyTrade (per CIA, 2013 est.)World

The World EconomySee tables below forWho trades most?Who trades with whom?Share

Who Trades the Most? ($ b. & % share, 2013)*EU external onlySource:

Who Trades the Most?Developed countries are the biggest tradersChina is catching

Who Trades the Most?See Economist from about a year ago: “Trading

Who Trades the Most?“Emerging Markets” in general are catching up to,

Lecture 1: Overview

Who Trades with Whom? ($ b., 2013, Intra- and inter-regional merchandise trade)Source:

North America, Europe, and Asia trade mostly within their groupPoorer regions

What Does the World Trade? ($ b. 2013 & annual % growth

Lecture 1: OverviewWhat Does the World Trade?Biggest traded category: manufacturesFastest growing,

Lecture 1: OverviewWhat Does the World Trade? ($ b. 2013 & annual

Lecture 1: OverviewWhat Does the World Trade? ($ b. 2013 & annual

What Does the US Trade? ($ b. 2011)Source: Economic Report of the

Lecture 1: OverviewWhat Does the US Trade?US imports are much larger

Importance of Trade for Countries? (GDP in US$ b., Exports % of

Importance of Trade for Countries?Even though we trade more than most,

Importance of Trade for Countries? A Few More of InterestSource: CIA World

Lecture 4Overview of the World Economy“Globalization”Elements of the World EconomyWays that

The World EconomyWays that countries interact economicallyCapital FlowsFinancial (holdings of financial

Lecture 1: OverviewThe World EconomyWays that countries interact economicallyCapital FlowsFinancial (holdings

The World EconomyWays that countries interact economicallyCapital FlowsFinancial (holdings of financial

US Investment Position ($ trillion at market value, year-end 2011)Source: Economic Report

US Investment Position(Qualification: “Owe” isn’t quite right. This includes all assets

Lecture 4Overview of the World Economy“Globalization”Elements of the World EconomyWays that

The World EconomyOther ways that countries interact economicallyMigrationTemporaryGuest workersDay workersPermanentIn practice,

Lecture 4Overview of the World Economy“Globalization”Elements of the World EconomyWays that

The World EconomyOther ways that countries interact economicallyPolicies that affect other

The World EconomyOther ways that countries interact economicallyPolicies that affect other

The World EconomyAside on TariffsWe will be dealing a lot with

The World EconomyAside on TariffsTariffs could go up:WTO enforces only upper

The World EconomyAside on Tariffs45% of US exports go to developing

The World EconomyOther ways that countries interact economicallyPolicies that affect other

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Fastest growing,

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Overview of the World Economy
“Globalization”
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“Globalization”
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