Exchange rate pass-through in Russian Federation

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Presentation Plan Main aim of my research and relevance of this

Presentation Plan

Main aim of my research and relevance of this problem

in Russian Federation
Theoretical aspects of the research
Future goals of the research
References

RANEPA 2015

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Main aim to analyze the the exchange rate pass-through of the

Main aim

to analyze the the exchange rate pass-through of the ruble

in the prices of goods and services on the territory of the Russia

Relevance of the issue

is determined by a high degree of openness of Russian economy and its high dollarization-dependence on other economies

RANEPA 2015

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Main theoretical definitions Exchange rate: Price for which the currency of

Main theoretical definitions

Exchange rate:
Price for which the currency of a country

can be exchanged for another country's currency
Exchange rate pass-through:
The percentage change (in local currency!) of import prices resulting from a one percent change in the exchange rate between the exporting and importing countries.

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The main factors which have influence on exchange rate pass through

The main factors which have influence on exchange rate pass through

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2015

The macroeconomic situation in the country
Transaction costs
Interchangeability of imported goods
Demand shocks
The degree of segmentation of the market between two countries
Currency pricing

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Practical example Suppose that the US is importing widgets from England

Practical example

Suppose that the US is importing widgets from England

Exchange rate

Widgets

cost

$1 for ₤1

$10

$1.5 for ₤1

$12.5

Change

50%

25%

 

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A simple model of the dependence of the exchange rate and

A simple model of the dependence of the exchange rate and

inflation

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The connection
between the nominal exchange rate and price levels is determined by:

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Future goals of my research To analyze different mechanisms of ERPT

Future goals of my research

To analyze different mechanisms of ERPT (direct

and indirect mechanisms)
To determine the dependence of ERPT on the regime of monetary policy, including exchange rate regime (fixed or floating)
To examine the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate and domestic prices in recent years, using panel data
To give basic conclusions and recommendations for the monetary policy in Russia

RANEPA 2015

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What I am going to use for this purpose? RANEPA 2015

What I am going to use for this purpose?

RANEPA 2015

Michael

B. Devereux and James Yetman(2007) Price-Setting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Reginaldo P.Nogueira - «Does the exchange rate pass- through respond for measures of macroeconomic instability?»(May 2011)
Handbook G Kaunonen and Juntilla 2010
To analyse data of ERPT in different countries
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References Пономарев Ю.; Трунин П.; Улюкаев А. Эффект переноса динамики обменного

References

Пономарев Ю.; Трунин П.; Улюкаев А. Эффект переноса динамики обменного курса

на цены в России.(2001)
Goldberg, P.K.; Knetter, M.M. (1997). "Goods prices and exchange rates: What have we learned?”
Campa, J.M.; Goldberg, L.S. (2005). "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices". Review of Economics and Statistics.

RANEPA 2015