Project Risk Management

Содержание

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Risk Management “The process involved with identifying, analyzing, and responding to

Risk Management

“The process involved with identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk.

It includes maximizing the results of positive risks and minimizing the consequences of negative events”
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Why Do We Manage Risk? Project problems can be reduced as

Why Do We Manage Risk?

Project problems can be reduced as much

as 90% by using risk analysis
Positives:
More info available during planning
Improved probability of success/optimum project
Negatives:
Belief that all risks are accounted for
Project cut due to risk level
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Key Terms Risk Tolerance – The amount of acceptable risk Risk

Key Terms

Risk Tolerance – The amount of acceptable risk
Risk Adverse –

Someone that does not want to take risks
Risk Factors
Probability of occurrence
Range of possible outcomes (impact or amount at stake
Expected Timing of event
Anticipated frequency of risk events from that source
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How Do We Manage Risk? Use the six risk management processes

How Do We Manage Risk?

Use the six risk management processes
Plan Risk

Management
Identify Risks
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Plan Risk Responses
Monitor and Control Risks
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Plan Risk Management Project Scope Statement Cost Management Plan Schedule Management

Plan Risk Management

Project Scope Statement
Cost Management Plan
Schedule Management Plan
Enterprise Environmental Factors
Organizational

Process Assets

Risk Management Plan

Planning Meetings and Analysis

Inputs

Outputs

Tools & Techniques

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What is a Risk Management Plan? Methodology – Approach, tools, &

What is a Risk Management Plan?

Methodology – Approach, tools, & data
Roles

& Responsibilities
Budgeting – Resources to be put into risk management
Timing – When and how often
Risk Categories – Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
Definitions – Risk probabilities and impact
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What is a Risk Mgmt Plan (Cont’d)? Probability and Impact Matrix Stakeholder tolerances Reporting formats Tracking

What is a Risk Mgmt Plan (Cont’d)?

Probability and Impact Matrix
Stakeholder tolerances
Reporting

formats
Tracking
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Risk Breakdown Structure Lists categories and subcategories where risks may arise

Risk Breakdown Structure

Lists categories and subcategories where risks may arise

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Identify Risks Risk Management Plan Activity Cost Estimates Activity Duration Estimates

Identify Risks

Risk Management Plan
Activity Cost Estimates
Activity Duration Estimates
Scope Baseline
Stakeholder Register
Cost Management

Plan
Schedule Management Plan
Quality Management Plan
Project Documents
Enterprise Environmental Factors
Organizational Process Assets

Risk Register

Documentation Reviews
Information Gathering Techniques
Checklist Analysis
Assumption Analysis
Diagramming Techniques
SWOT Analysis
Expert Judgment

Inputs

Outputs

Tools & Techniques

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Information Gathering Techniques Brainstorming Delphi technique Successive anonymous questionnaires on project

Information Gathering Techniques

Brainstorming
Delphi technique
Successive anonymous questionnaires on project risks with responses

summarized for further analysis
Interviewing
Root cause identification
Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis
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Diagramming Techniques Cause and Effect Diagrams Also known as Ishikawa or

Diagramming Techniques

Cause and Effect Diagrams
Also known as Ishikawa or fishbone

Product Delivered

Late

Bad Specs

Insufficient Resources

Inadequate Time

Project Prioritization

Testing

Materials

Potential Causes

Effect

Personnel

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Risk Register List of Identified risks Potential responses Root causes Updated risk categories (if required)

Risk Register

List of
Identified risks
Potential responses
Root causes
Updated risk categories (if required)

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Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Risk Register Risk Management Plan Project Scope

Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

Risk Register
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
Organizational Process Assets

Risk

Register Updates

Risk probability and impact statement
Probability and impact matrix
Risk data quality assessment
Risk categorization
Risk urgency assessment
Expert Judgement

Inputs

Outputs

Tools & Techniques

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Methodologies Probability and Impact Matrix Based on Failure Modes and Effects

Methodologies

Probability and Impact Matrix
Based on Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
From

1950’s analysis of military systems
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Probability and Impact Matrix Define Probability Scale & Impact Scale Probability Scale Impact Scale

Probability and Impact Matrix

Define Probability Scale & Impact Scale

Probability Scale

Impact Scale

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Probability and Impact Plots Rate each risk on scales then plot

Probability and Impact Plots

Rate each risk on scales then plot on

matrix
Develop mitigation technique for risks above tolerance
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Risk Register Update Add Probability and Impact Matrix results Perform quality

Risk Register Update

Add
Probability and Impact Matrix results
Perform quality check on

results
Categorize the risks to make them easier to handle
Perform urgency assessment to determine which risk need immediate attention
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Risk Register

Risk Register

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Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Register Risk Management Plan Cost Management

Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

Risk Register
Risk Management Plan
Cost Management Plan
Schedule Management Plan
Organizational

Process Assets

Risk Register Updates

Data gathering and representation techniques
Quantitative risk analysis and modeling
Expert Judgment

Inputs

Outputs

Tools & Techniques

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Quantitative Risk Analysis Analyze numerically the probability and consequence of each

Quantitative Risk Analysis

Analyze numerically the probability and consequence of each risk
Monte

Carlo analysis popular
Decision Tree analysis on test
Diagram that describes a decision and probabilities associated with the choices
Expected Monetary Value Analysis (EMV)
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Expected Monetary Value (EMV)

Expected Monetary Value (EMV)

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Decision Tree Analysis Decision Definition Decision Node Chance Node Net Path

Decision Tree Analysis

Decision Definition

Decision Node

Chance Node

Net Path Value

EMV of New Bldg

Node = $41.5!

EMV of Upgrade Node = $49!

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Plan Risk Responses Risk Management Plan Risk Register Risk Register Updates

Plan Risk Responses

Risk Management Plan

Risk Register

Risk Register Updates

Strategies for negative risks

or threats
Strategies for positive risks or opportunities
Contingent response strategy
Expert Judgment

Inputs

Outputs

Tools & Techniques

Project Management Plan Updates

Risk-related Contract Decisions

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Strategies Negative Risks (or Threats) Avoid Transfer Mitigate Acceptance Positive Risks

Strategies

Negative Risks (or Threats)
Avoid
Transfer
Mitigate
Acceptance
Positive Risks (or Opportunities)
Exploit
Share
Enhance
Acceptance