Pepsico international

Содержание

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PepsiCo, Inc. is a global food, snack and beverage company founded

PepsiCo, Inc. is a global food, snack and beverage company founded

in 1919.
The Company's brands include Quaker Oats, Tropicana, Gatorade, Lay's, Pepsi, Walkers, Gamesa and Sabritas.
Market capitalisation: $100.68bn
Approximately around 294,000 employees worldwide.
December 5th 2011 closing price: $64.40
52-week range: $58.50-$71.89

Introduction

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(5 Year) Stock Market Performance Blue line – iShares S&P Global

(5 Year) Stock Market Performance

Blue line – iShares S&P Global Consumer Staples (KXI)
Red

line – PepsiCo
Green – S&P 500 index

Yahoo Finance

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Technical Analysis Yahoo Finance 20 and 200 day moving average over a 5-year time horizon

Technical Analysis

Yahoo Finance

20 and 200 day moving average over a 5-year

time horizon
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Yahoo Finance 20 and 200 day moving average over a 2-year time horizon

Yahoo Finance

20 and 200 day moving average over a 2-year time

horizon
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Ownership Above 10 holders comprise 22.27% of shareholders’ ownership. Data as

Ownership

Above 10 holders comprise 22.27% of shareholders’ ownership.
Data as of 30th

September, 2011, Financial Times
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Macroeconomic Analysis Consumer spending: IBIS World estimates 2.6% compound growth in

Macroeconomic Analysis

Consumer spending: 
IBIS World estimates 2.6% compound growth in consumer spending

from 2011 to 2016

http://clients.ibisworld.com/bed/default.aspx?bedid=363http://clients.ibisworld.com/bed/default.aspx?bedid=363 Image: http://clients.ibisworld.com/charts/bed/1_1_363_BEDScores.png

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Industry Analysis Soda Production in the US: ~$17bn revenue, $2.5bn profit

Industry Analysis

Soda Production in the US: 
~$17bn revenue, $2.5bn profit
Performance
Industry has been

suffering recently with an annual 7.1% decline from 2006 to 2011
Outlook
IBIS World project a negative annual growth rate of -2.0% for 2011 to 2016
Major Players
The Coca-Cola Company - Market Share: 41.2%
PepsiCo Inc. - Market Share: 33.6%
Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. - Market Share: 15.4%

http://clients.ibisworld.com/industryus/default.aspx?indid=285

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Industry Analysis (cont.) Snack Food Production in the US ~$28.4bn revenue,

Industry Analysis (cont.)

Snack Food Production in the US
~$28.4bn revenue, $5.9bn profit
Performance
Steady

growth with an annual rate of 4.2% from 2006 to 2011
Outlook
IBIS World project an annual growth rate of 2.1% for 2011 to 2016
Major Players
Frito Lay North America - Market Share: 48.4%
Kraft Foods Inc. - Market Share: 5.2%
General Mills Inc. - Market Share: 5.1%

http://clients.ibisworld.com/industryus/default.aspx?indid=271

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Industry Analysis (cont.) Juice Production in the US ~$27bn revenue, $6.1bn

Industry Analysis (cont.)

Juice Production in the US
~$27bn revenue, $6.1bn profit
Performance
Recent performance

has been strong with annual growth rates of 10.4% from 2006 to 2011
Outlook
IBIS World project an annual growth rate of 0.5% for 2011 to 2016
Major Players
PepsiCo Inc. - Market Share: 38.4%
The Coca-Cola Company - Market Share: 21.5%
Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. - Market Share: 6.1%

 http://clients.ibisworld.com/industryus/default.aspx?indid=287

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Product Segments Source: Barclays “BTS” Consumer Conference, Sep 2011 http://www.pepsico.com/Download/Barclays_BTS_Presentation.pdf

Product Segments

Source: Barclays “BTS” Consumer Conference, Sep 2011
http://www.pepsico.com/Download/Barclays_BTS_Presentation.pdf

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2010 Revenue Breakdown Source: Annual Report, Dec 2010

2010 Revenue Breakdown

Source: Annual Report, Dec 2010

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Global Markets Exposure About $20 billion or 31% of Revenue from

Global Markets Exposure

About $20 billion or 31% of Revenue from emerging

markets in 2010
Focus on growth in Central Asia and Eastern Europe
70% growth of sales in Russia over last 2 years
Robust economic indicators, low debt ratios, good foreign exchange reserves
Wimm-Bill-Dann acquisition
66% at $3.8 B total ownership to 77%
15 Aug 2011, ‘squeeze-out demand’ for other 23%
3,883.70 Russian rubles per share

Source: Q3 Earnings Release, Oct 2011

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Financial Performance 24% 5-year CAGR High operating margins and potential for

Financial Performance

24% 5-year CAGR
High operating margins and potential for growth
5-year Compounded

Annual Growth Rates:
12% in Net Revenue
10% Operating Profit
$29 B in Dividend and Share repurchases in the last 5 yrs

9% EPS
8% Operating Cash Flow

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Savory Snacks Frito Lay’s World’s largest Food Brand $9.4bn Doritos $4

Savory Snacks

Frito Lay’s World’s largest Food Brand $9.4bn
Doritos

$4 B, Cheetos $3.1 B, Ruffles $2.6bn,
Tositos $1.7bn, Fritos $1.3bn

Transnational expansion strategy through balance between:
Localization
Maintaining consistent quality standards and cooking processes
5-year CAGR:
3% Volume
8% Revenue
8% NOPBT

Source: Q3 Earnings Release, Oct 2011

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Beverages Source: Barclays “BTS” Consumer Conference, Sep 2011 http://www.pepsico.com/Download/Barclays_BTS_Presentation.pdf

Beverages

Source: Barclays “BTS” Consumer Conference, Sep 2011
http://www.pepsico.com/Download/Barclays_BTS_Presentation.pdf

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Carbonated Soft Drinks Sustain powerhouse brands Sierra Mist, +7% in volume

Carbonated Soft Drinks

Sustain powerhouse brands
Sierra Mist, +7% in volume
Mountain Dew, +2.5%

in volume
Pepsi Max, +93% in volume
Focused advertising & marketing campaigns
Pepsi Max
Diet Pepsi
Pepsi
Social media exposure
Continue innovating products
Pepsi Next
Develop Occasion-based marketing
On-the-Go Refreshment
Special Occasion and Celebrations
Meal-time and Snacking

Source: Q3 Earnings Release, Oct 2011

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Hydration & Nourishment Gatorade 11% Sales growth 77.3% Sports Drink market

Hydration & Nourishment

Gatorade
11% Sales growth
77.3% Sports Drink market share

Tropicana
About 50% Sales

TTM growth
$150 MM

Source: Q3 Earnings Release, Oct 2011
Barclays “BTS” Consumer Conference, Sep 2011
http://www.pepsico.com/Download/Barclays_BTS_Presentation.pdf

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Nutrition Top 3 globally in Nutrition, aiming to be $30B business

Nutrition

Top 3 globally in Nutrition, aiming to be $30B business by

2020
Huge growth potential, 5-year double-digit revenue CAGR
Strong demographic and consumer interest in health and wellness
Aging population seeking healthy and tasty foods
On-the-Go consumers and their demand for convenience

Source: Q3 Earnings Release, Oct 2011
Barclays “BTS” Consumer Conference, Sep 2011
http://www.pepsico.com/Download/Barclays_BTS_Presentation.pdf

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Recent Challenges and Concerns 2012 Pricing Strategy Commodity inflation and Demand

Recent Challenges and Concerns

2012 Pricing Strategy
Commodity inflation and Demand elasticity
Margins &

Cost cutting measures
Currency exposure
Investors appealing for a split of Snacks and Beverages
Strong growth in snacks business
Strong growth with Tropicana and Gatorade
Weak CSD strategy and culture has impacted PepsiCo’s overall stock performance
While Coke has increased by about 50%
Over-spending in marketing and advertising
Kraft and Sara Lee example

Source: “Don’t Rule Out a Pepsi Breakup Yet”, Barron’s, 11/19/2011
Q3 Earnings Release, Oct 2011

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The Power of One Two powerful businesses worth $31B each Consumption:

The Power of One

Two powerful businesses worth $31B each
Consumption:
Planned together
Bought together
Consumed

together
Synergies unique to PepsiCo that lead to selling & service advantages and efficient operations:
Common Merchandising
Convenience Store Channel
Demographics
Broad Price Points
Prime-time Merchandising
Distribution Networks
New NFL 10 Year Deal

Source: Q3 Earnings Release, Oct 2011

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Public Comparable Analysis Quaker/Nutrition SWX:NESN Nestlé S.A. Business areas include Food

Public Comparable Analysis

Quaker/Nutrition
SWX:NESN Nestlé S.A.
Business areas include Food and Beverage,

Nestle Waters and Nestle Nutrition.
NYSE:KFT Kraft Foods Inc.
Manufactures and markets packaged food products, including biscuits, confectionery, beverages, cheese, convenient meals and various packaged grocery products.
NYSE:BGS B&G Foods Inc.
B&G Foods, Inc. (B&G Foods) manufactures, sells and distributes a diverse portfolio of branded shelf-stable food products. 
NYSE:GIS General Mills, Inc.
Global manufacturer and marketer of consumer foods. products categories in the US include cereals, refrigerated yogurt, soups, shelf stable and frozen vegetables, dough products, dessert and baking mixes, grain, fruit and savory snacks, and a variety of organic products.
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Public Comparable Analysis - Quaker Range: 66.49 to 73.73 Median: 71.06 Price: 8.36

Public Comparable Analysis - Quaker

Range: 66.49 to 73.73
Median: 71.06
Price: 8.36

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Public Comparable Analysis (cont.) Soft Drinks NYSE:KO The Coca-Cola Company Produce

Public Comparable Analysis (cont.)

Soft Drinks
NYSE:KO The Coca-Cola Company
Produce over

3,500 beverages. Notable brands include: Coca-Cola, Powerade, Fanta, Sprite, Dasani and Vitamin Water
NYSE:COT Cott Corporation
Products: Red Rooster, Blue Charge
NYSE:DPS Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc.
Products: Dr Pepper, 7UP, Canada Dry, RC Cola Deja Blue
NasdaqGS:FIZZ National Beverage Corp.
Products: Shasta, Faygo, Everfresh
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Public Comparable Analysis – Soft Drinks Range: 5029 to 81.79 Median: 56.40 Price: 24.00

Public Comparable Analysis – Soft Drinks

Range: 5029 to 81.79
Median: 56.40
Price: 24.00

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Public Comparable Analysis (cont.) Frito-Lay NasdaqGS:LNCE Snyder's-Lance, Inc. Manufacturer and distributer

Public Comparable Analysis (cont.)

Frito-Lay
NasdaqGS:LNCE Snyder's-Lance, Inc.
Manufacturer and distributer of

snack food products, including pretzels, crackers, kettle chips, cookies, potato chips and tortilla chips.
NasdaqGS:DMND Diamond Foods, Inc.
Products: Kettle Brand Potato Chips,
NYSE:CAG ConAgra Foods, Inc.
Consumer Foods producer. Brands include Banquet, David Seeds, Egg Beaters, Healthy Choice, Hebrew National, Pam and Snack Pack.
NYSE:HSY Hershey Co.
Snacks
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Public Comparable Analysis – Frito-Lay Range: 21.52 to 67.22 Weight: 55.00

Public Comparable Analysis – Frito-Lay

Range: 21.52 to 67.22
Weight: 55.00
Other multiples low

so used closer to P/E
Price: 15.17
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Public Comparable Analysis (cont.) Tropicana NasdaqGS:HANS Hansen Natural Corporation Develops, sells

Public Comparable Analysis (cont.)

Tropicana
NasdaqGS:HANS Hansen Natural Corporation
Develops, sells and

distributes beverages. Brands include Monster Energy, Peace Tea, Hansen's, Hansen's Natural Sodas, Junior Juice, Blue Sky, X-Presso Monster, Vidration, Hubert's, Rumba, Samba and Tango.
NYSE:CQB Chiquita Brands International Inc.
Products: Chiquita Fruit juices
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Public Comparable Analysis - Tropicana Range: 70.11 to 148.88 Median: 109.49 Price: 19.78

Public Comparable Analysis - Tropicana

Range: 70.11 to 148.88
Median: 109.49
Price: 19.78