Models of decision making

Содержание

Слайд 2

Giancarlo Vecchi 1. DECISION MAKING MODELS Problem Solution A Solution B

Giancarlo Vecchi

1. DECISION MAKING MODELS

Problem

Solution A

Solution B

Solution C

Solution D

To decide

(from latin de-caedere) means “to cut off”

It is impossible to observe the very moment in which a decision is made (when the alternatives are cut off)

The decision is a process

Слайд 3

Giancarlo Vecchi A decision-making model is a short description of the

Giancarlo Vecchi

A decision-making model is a short description of the main

features of the decision-making process:
the properties of the decision-maker
who is he/she?
his/her cognitive capabilities
how do he/she think?
how solutions are searched and assessed
how the final choice is made

2. Main Variables of a D-M Model

Слайд 4

Giancarlo Vecchi a) The rational model 3.

Giancarlo Vecchi
a) The rational model

3.

Слайд 5

Giancarlo Vecchi A decision is a process in which the actor:

Giancarlo Vecchi

A decision is a process in which the actor:
Knows all

his/her objectives
Is able to rank the objectives in an order of preferences (prioritisation)
Knows all the alternatives courses of action
Is able to measure costs and benefits of every alternative
Chooses the alternative maximising the benefit/cost ratio (optimizing approach)

3.

Слайд 6

Giancarlo Vecchi 3. The rational choice elements Completeness – all possible

Giancarlo Vecchi

3. The rational choice elements

Completeness – all possible courses

of action can be ranked in an order of preference
To be able to do that, you need a lot of information about the state of the world and the outcome of your actions. In the rational choice model, actors have the sufficient level of information.
Transitivity – if action A is preferred to B, and action B is preferred to C, then A is preferred to C (also, local non-satiation, independence of irrelevant alternatives – IIA)
An actor will select a course of action that yields the highest utility (under resource constraints): maximization
Слайд 7

Giancarlo Vecchi The rational model is based on the idea of

Giancarlo Vecchi

The rational model is based on
the idea of economic

rationality as it developed in economic theory
The idea of bureaucratic rationality as formulated by sociological theories of organization and industrial society
BUT: IS THE MAIN MODEL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH: ? ITS BASES ARE ON THE KNOWLEDGE OF EXPERTS, SO THEY PLAY A FUNDAMENTAL ROLE

3.

Слайд 8

Giancarlo Vecchi Methods for rational decision-making Cost-Benefit Analysis Multicriteria Analysis Environmental

Giancarlo Vecchi

Methods for rational decision-making
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Multicriteria Analysis
Environmental Impact Assessment
Operational Research
etc

3.

Слайд 9

Giancarlo Vecchi Rational decision-making. Reasons for its success Making technique prevail

Giancarlo Vecchi

Rational decision-making. Reasons for its success
Making technique prevail over politics
Overcoming

the bureaucratic behavior of public servants
Computation capabilities

3.

Слайд 10

Giancarlo Vecchi Conditions for operating with the rational model Well-structured problem

Giancarlo Vecchi

Conditions for operating with the rational model
Well-structured problem (without ambiguity)
Non

contradictory goals
Possibility of setting goals before means
Availability of causal theories: if A ? then (always) B, in a invariable/changeless context condition ? the behaviour of B is explained by the behaviour of A (and only A)

3.

Слайд 11

Giancarlo Vecchi Single decision-maker (or well coherent group) Time availability 3.

Giancarlo Vecchi
Single decision-maker (or well coherent group)
Time availability

3.

Слайд 12

Giancarlo Vecchi STRATEGIES IF YOU, AS AN EXPERT OR A PROMOTER

Giancarlo Vecchi

STRATEGIES IF YOU, AS AN EXPERT OR A PROMOTER OF

A PROJECT, NEED “MORE KNOWLEDGE”
Claim for more time before the final decision, underlying the future costs of a sub-optimal solution
Claim to study good practices around the world
Claim for valid and consistent basic information
…

3.

Слайд 13

Giancarlo Vecchi Too pretentious? This type of rationality has been defined

Giancarlo Vecchi

Too pretentious?
This type of rationality has been defined as:
Olympic (Simon)
Synoptic

(Lindblom)
Comprehensive
As we often cannot defeat uncertainty, we have to practice other methods that are less pretentious, such as:
a) the bounded rationality model
b) the incremental model
c) the garbage can model

3.

Слайд 14

Giancarlo Vecchi b) The bounded rationality model (or procedural rationality) 4.

Giancarlo Vecchi
b) The bounded rationality
model (or procedural rationality)

4.

Слайд 15

Giancarlo Vecchi Herbert Simon (economist, political scientist, sociologist of organizations) observed

Giancarlo Vecchi

Herbert Simon (economist, political scientist, sociologist of organizations) observed that

very often in real life decisions are made by people that are limited by:
limited knowledge
limited attention span: problems must be dealt with on a serial, on-at-a-time basis, since decision makers cannot think about too many issues at the same time; attention shifts from one value to another;
limited memory, limit on the storage capacity of the human mind;
?

4.

Слайд 16

Giancarlo Vecchi habit and routine: human beings and organizational behaviour structured

Giancarlo Vecchi

habit and routine: human beings and organizational behaviour structured in

routines to manage in a experienced way the same type of situations
organisational environments which frames the process of choice
time availability
consequences that cannot be known, so that the decision-maker relies on a capacity to make valuations;
etc.

4.

Слайд 17

Giancarlo Vecchi Therefore, the ideal of perfect (substantial) rationality must be

Giancarlo Vecchi

Therefore, the ideal of perfect (substantial) rationality must be dismissed

in favour of limited (procedural) rationality
An individual is rational if the behaviour is purposive, intentional, i.e. directed at realising the goals of expressed values
In this situation the criterion of choice is not optimising but satisficing, i.e. reaching a decision that is good enough

4.

Слайд 18

Giancarlo Vecchi This conclusion can be reached also through the observation

Giancarlo Vecchi

This conclusion can be reached also through the observation that:
most

decisions in political settings are taken by a plurality of actors (coalitions)
the solution is often reached through a sequential assessment (and not a parallel investigations with the comparison among all the available alternatives) that stops when the first “good enough” solution is found

4.

Слайд 19

Giancarlo Vecchi Satisfaction criterion and sequential assessment/a Satisficing is the strategy

Giancarlo Vecchi

Satisfaction criterion and sequential assessment/a
Satisficing is the strategy of considering

the options available to you for choice until you find one that meets or exceeds a predefined threshold—your aspiration level—for a minimally acceptable outcome. 

4.

Слайд 20

Giancarlo Vecchi Satisfaction criterion and sequential assessment/b Sequential assessment: if you

Giancarlo Vecchi

Satisfaction criterion and sequential assessment/b
Sequential assessment: if you find the

first option meets your minimum aspirations, and if you have not time to search for many alternatives, you can stop your decision making process, without compare it with other available alternatives
If the first isn’t good in a sufficient level, you will analyze the second option, and compare it with your desired minimum level of aspiration, repeating the ‘satisfaction procedure’.
This a sequential, linear, procedure

4.

Слайд 21

Giancarlo Vecchi STRATEGIES IF YOU ARE THE DESIGNER Be sure that

Giancarlo Vecchi

STRATEGIES IF YOU ARE THE DESIGNER
Be sure that your

proposal reached the agenda (it is part of the group of the solutions that will be discussed)
Claim to present your proposal as the first, and
Define before the decisional process, the rules about ”How to decide” with the aim to analyze firstly your proposals

4.

Слайд 22

Giancarlo Vecchi Interlude: the Condorcet/Arrow paradox A given order of preferences

Giancarlo Vecchi

Interlude: the Condorcet/Arrow paradox
A given order of preferences is transitive

when
if choice A is preferred to choice B
and
choice B is preferred to choice C
then
choice A is preferred to choice C

4.

Слайд 23

Giancarlo Vecchi Example: choosing energy policy 4.

Giancarlo Vecchi

Example: choosing energy policy

4.

Слайд 24

Giancarlo Vecchi A committee is appointed to advise on the best

Giancarlo Vecchi

A committee is appointed to advise on the best energy

policy, composed by
Prof. Red – economist – maximises efficiency
Mr. Green – environmentalist – maximises sustainability
Dr. White – engineer – maximises technology

4.

Слайд 25

Giancarlo Vecchi 4.

Giancarlo Vecchi

4.

Слайд 26

Giancarlo Vecchi To learn It is possible that collective preferences are

Giancarlo Vecchi

To learn
It is possible that collective preferences are non-transitive

(or cyclical)
Kennet Arrow has enlarged the paradox to the “impossibility theorem” stating that it is impossible to aggregate preference into a single social welfare function under the conditions of democracy

4.

Слайд 27

Giancarlo Vecchi c) The incremental model 5.

Giancarlo Vecchi
c) The incremental model

5.

Слайд 28

Giancarlo Vecchi Charles Lindblom observed that often policy making implies different

Giancarlo Vecchi

Charles Lindblom observed that often policy making implies different groups

with different values and goals.
They are at the same time partisan and interdependent.
In other words they have:
structurally conflicting goals
but they need each other
(example: majority/opposition, politicians/bureaucrats, central state/regional governments)

5.

Слайд 29

Giancarlo Vecchi Decision-makers do not follow the synoptic method Means (often)

Giancarlo Vecchi

Decision-makers do not follow the synoptic method
Means (often) determine goals

(interdependence)
Only few alternatives are explored and assessed
The assessment consists in a comparison between the expected change and the status quo

5.

Слайд 30

Giancarlo Vecchi An alternative is preferred if there is an agreement

Giancarlo Vecchi

An alternative is preferred if there is an agreement among

decision-makers that this alternative is good (i.e. acceptable)
The decision process is a partisan mutual adjustment
Decisions are thus incremental, i.e. departing as little as possible from the status quo

5.

Слайд 31

Giancarlo Vecchi In the incremental model the typical decisional situation is

Giancarlo Vecchi

In the incremental model the typical decisional situation is not

the one in which all the actors seek to find the solution to a specific problem.

5.

Слайд 32

Giancarlo Vecchi On the contrary very often there is someone interested

Giancarlo Vecchi

On the contrary very often there is
someone interested in

solving the problem,
someone else only interested in imposing their solution,
someone interested in participating in the process but not really keen in solving the problem or adopting a given solution, but only interested to improve its role, or exchange the current support with the support of the actors in another decisional arena

5.

Слайд 33

Giancarlo Vecchi Lindblom, in the book “The intelligence of democracy” (note

Giancarlo Vecchi

Lindblom, in the book “The intelligence of democracy” (note the

double meaning), shows that this “confusion” is really what democracy is all about

5.

Слайд 34

Giancarlo Vecchi Objections to incrementalism A conservative method Not all interests

Giancarlo Vecchi

Objections to incrementalism
A conservative method
Not all interests are equally powerful
BUT
it

is useful to explain decision making processes at a micro-level

5.

Слайд 35

Giancarlo Vecchi STRATEGIES IF YOU ARE THE DESIGNER You should prepare

Giancarlo Vecchi

STRATEGIES IF YOU ARE THE DESIGNER
You should prepare designs

that have:
one ‘core contents’, i.e. things that you do not want to negotiate
contents that you could change if a negotiation will be required to reach a decision
analyse the policy field to know the actors that could be your partner and those that could be your opponents, to understand why and which changes you can accept

5.

Слайд 36

Giancarlo Vecchi The garbage can model (Michael Cohen, James March e

Giancarlo Vecchi
The garbage can model
(Michael Cohen, James March e Johan Olsen

+ John Kingdon)

6.

Слайд 37

Giancarlo Vecchi The garbage can model stresses the anarchical nature of

Giancarlo Vecchi

The garbage can model stresses the anarchical nature of decision-making

processes as “loose collection of ideas” as opposed to rational “coherent structure”. Actors discover preferences through action, rather than act out of preferences.
Understandig is poor (problems are complex), trial and error learning operates, and participation is fluid.

6.

Слайд 38

Giancarlo Vecchi Decision-making arenas are collection of choices which looks for

Giancarlo Vecchi

Decision-making arenas are collection of choices which looks for problems

and issues and seeks decisional situations in which they may be advanced. Solutions looks for problems. Choices thus compose a “garbage can” into which various kind of problems and solutions are dumped by participants as they are generated.

6.

Слайд 39

Giancarlo Vecchi Ambiguity, not only uncertainty Factors of ambiguity Actors’ preferences

Giancarlo Vecchi

Ambiguity, not only uncertainty
Factors of ambiguity
Actors’ preferences are not always

fixed and consistent
rather they change during the development of the process and, due their interests and beliefs, not necessarily coherent;
Actors’ participation is fluid
- people move in and out
- their attention is a scarce resource (it depend on the period)
?

6.

Слайд 40

Giancarlo Vecchi (Factors of ambiguity) Solutions can come out also when

Giancarlo Vecchi

(Factors of ambiguity)
Solutions can come out also when problems are

not present yet
there are problems in search of a solution and solutions in search of a problem (because they are supported by different actors, because we can use an available solution to deal with a new problem, adapting it…)
Problems and solutions can be presented in several decisional venues, when actors see choice opportunities

6.

Слайд 41

The four streams Actors (A) Problems (P) Solutions (S) Choice Opportunities

The four streams

Actors (A)
Problems (P)
Solutions (S)
Choice Opportunities (O)
O are garbage cans

in which A throw P and S. The final decision will depend on the casual matching of P and S.
Слайд 42

How garbage can model works P P P P P P

How garbage can model works

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

S

S

S

S

S

S

S

S

P

S

S

S

S

S

S

S

O

O

O

A

A

Слайд 43

Giancarlo Vecchi In a garbage can process there are exogenous, time-dependent

Giancarlo Vecchi

In a garbage can process there are exogenous, time-dependent arrivals

of choice opportunities, problems solutions and decision makers. The logic of ordering is temporal rather than hierarchical or consequential.
Problems and solutions are attached to choices, and thus each other, not only because of their means-end linkages but also because of their simultaneity. (Cyert & March, 1992:25)

6.

Слайд 44

Giancarlo Vecchi The garbage can model argues that there are situations

Giancarlo Vecchi

The garbage can model argues that
there are situations in

which some issues will have a solution attached to them, and the coupled and decided
others will not,
other solutions may be roaming around looking for an issue to which attach themselves.

6.

Слайд 45

Giancarlo Vecchi ‘Policy entrepreneurs’ are actors interested in reach a decision,

Giancarlo Vecchi

‘Policy entrepreneurs’ are actors interested in reach a decision, and

in the coupling between problem and solutions:
“people who are willing to invest resources of various kinds in hopes of future return in the form of policies they favour”.
They are crucial to the survival and success of an idea: ideas must be technically feasible, compatible with dominant values and able to anticipate future constraints.

6.

Слайд 46

Giancarlo Vecchi STRATEGIES IF YOU ARE THE DESIGNER You should have

Giancarlo Vecchi

STRATEGIES IF YOU ARE THE DESIGNER
You should have many

proposal designed, a sort of projects’ basin; it will be useful when a window opportunity opens, and you will be ready to present an appropriate proposal
You should know many decisional venues, to check when a decisional processes starts there;
You should learn, during the process, if you should change something to improve the opportunities for your project or/and start a new partnership

6.

Слайд 47

Giancarlo Vecchi To sum up 7.

Giancarlo Vecchi
To sum up

7.

Слайд 48

Giancarlo Vecchi 7.

Giancarlo Vecchi

7.

Слайд 49

Giancarlo Vecchi In the table going from the top to the

Giancarlo Vecchi

In the table going from the top to the bottom

decreases the prescriptive value and increases the descriptive value
The prescriptions of the rational model are strong and clear, but they are very difficult to apply, while the prescriptions of the garbage can model are universal but weak and unclear
Which model? It depends on the situation we have to tackle

7.

Слайд 50

Giancarlo Vecchi Designs as theories If I adopt the measure x

Giancarlo Vecchi

Designs as theories
If I adopt the measure x at the

time t1 I will get the result y at the time t2
But how can I know whether a causal link between x and y exists?
This is the key problem of uncertainty

8. Uncertainty and decision making

Слайд 51

Giancarlo Vecchi S 8. Simple, complicated, and complex problems From Glouberman & Zimmerman 2002, p.2

Giancarlo Vecchi

S

8. Simple, complicated, and complex problems

From Glouberman & Zimmerman 2002,

p.2
Слайд 52

Giancarlo Vecchi Wicked problem: complex problems, that characterize the activity of

Giancarlo Vecchi

Wicked problem: complex problems, that characterize the activity of many

social professions: management, planning, etc.
Wicked: complex, interdependent, intractable, conflict-prone
Examples?

8. Wicked problems

Слайд 53

Giancarlo Vecchi Wicked problem: complex problems, that characterize the activity of

Giancarlo Vecchi

Wicked problem: complex problems, that characterize the activity of many

social professions: management, planning, etc.
Wicked: complex, interdependent, intractable, conflict-prone
e.g. environmental/ecological problem, climate change, poverty, obesity/food, health/pandemic, metropolitan management, etc.

8.

Слайд 54

Giancarlo Vecchi Modern society is too pluralistic to tolerate artificial solutions

Giancarlo Vecchi

Modern society is too pluralistic to tolerate artificial solutions imposed

on social groups with different attitudes and values, and this pluralism undermines the possibility of clear, agreed solutions.
The finite problems tackled by science and engineering are seen as relatively ‘tame’ or ‘benign’ in the sense that their elements are definable and solutions are verifiable
By contrast, modern social problems are generally ‘ill-defined’ and resistant to an agreed solution. They are therefore ‘wicked’, relying on political judgements rather than scientific certitudes (Rittel & Webber, 1973: 160).

8. Wicked problems

Слайд 55

Giancarlo Vecchi 6. From: Alford & Head 2017, 402

Giancarlo Vecchi

6.

From: Alford & Head 2017, 402

Слайд 56

Giancarlo Vecchi 8. Defeating uncertainty more information, more solid theories, better

Giancarlo Vecchi

8.

Defeating uncertainty
more information, more solid theories, better method
planning, rationality,

etc.

Living with uncertainty
we must accept that often we have to make a decision in the darkness, and try cope with it
incrementalism, negotiation, partisan adjustment, trial and error

Two responses to uncertainty

Слайд 57

Giancarlo Vecchi Decisional strategies: Authoritative: one strong leader should decide with

Giancarlo Vecchi

Decisional strategies:
Authoritative: one strong leader should decide with authority. BUT:

wicked problems by their nature are usually beyond the cognitive capacity of any one mind to diagnose or comprehend
Competitive: fostering competition between societal actors to come up with understandings of the problem and potential advances in dealing with it. BUT: risk generating heightened conflict that consumes resources and delays solutions.
Collaboration: public consultation or participation in decision-making. BUT: how to pull this together into a coherent account
Expert authority: again the nature of the problem is beyond the thinking abilities of even the most erudite expert.

8.

Слайд 58

Giancarlo Vecchi OPPORTUNITY: Cooperation: we need strong cooperation among different types

Giancarlo Vecchi

OPPORTUNITY:
Cooperation: we need strong cooperation among different types of actors

to work with different resources. We need technical expertise, but it is not the only type of capability required; also needed is the capacity to lead, organise and manage the cooperative processes, the exchange of information, the implementation of responses, etc.

8.

Слайд 59

Thompson’s matrix Certain Uncertain (disagreement) Certain (agreement) Uncertain 1 Rational approach

Thompson’s matrix

Certain

Uncertain
(disagreement)

Certain (agreement)

Uncertain

1
Rational approach
Computation

2
Bargaining

3
Trial and error, experiments

4
Chaotic
Redefining problem

Goals

Technologies (means)

Слайд 60

Giancarlo Vecchi Thompson’s Matrix/2 The matrix shows the approaches to follow

Giancarlo Vecchi

Thompson’s Matrix/2
The matrix shows the approaches to follow on the

basis of two variables: technology (means) and goals; and the level of uncertainty.
Technology: do we know how to solve the problem?
Goals: do we agree about the characteristics of the problem (the problem definition)?

8.

Слайд 61

Giancarlo Vecchi Thompson’s Matrix/3 Examples Box 1: Vaccine to defeat cholera,

Giancarlo Vecchi

Thompson’s Matrix/3
Examples
Box 1: Vaccine to defeat cholera,
Box 2: Pensions,

welfare system, etc.
Box 3: COVID-19? Car pollution,
Box 4: Immigration, poverty, COVID-19? Here: how to redefine the problem?

8.

Слайд 62

Christensen version

Christensen version

- Предыдущая
Starshie. Уровень 0
Следующая -
Голубь Мира - Голубь Победы!

Похожие презентации

Заселение в отель
Рекламное объявление
Условия использования вагонов и контейнеров для перевозки скоропортящихся грузов
Теория потребностей Дэвида МакКлелланда
Карта компетенций сотрудников отдела №5
Cохранение знаний. C. Дюрст
Методы управления персоналом
Прикладные задачи, приводящие к задаче линейного программирования. (Лекция 2)
Корпоративные и организационные основы менеджмента
Управление персоналом в отраслях социальной сферы
Тайный Санта
Управление деловыми конфликтами
Основні структурні елементи вступу
Организация как функция менеджмента
Эволюция менеджмента качества в мире и в России
Поведение человека в группе. (Тема 3)
Strategie konkurencji
Стратегиялық жоспар. Тиімді менеджмент стратегиясы. Стратегиялық баламаларды ондеу және талдау
Моделирование и анализ бизнес-процессов
Резюме и собеседование
Pinky&Brain: магазин – оптовая торговля
Стандарт работы встречающего в магазинах сети Буквоед
Централизация процессов поддержки SAP ландшафта в ПАО КАМАЗ
Управление карьерой. Лекция 9
Совершенствование организации доставки работников МУП АГО Ангарский трамвай
Zarządzanie zasobami ludzkimi
Шаблон презентации вебинара
Модель организационного развития
Вы можете прислать нам Вашу презентацию и мы опубликуем ее на сайте.
Обратная связь
Для правообладателей
Email: Нажмите что бы посмотреть